pre$premoneyvaluation.com
Equidam framework · Standard adaptation

DCF (early-stage adapted)

Founder takeaway

Founder reading: building a DCF reveals more about your plan than the resulting number. If you can't defend the year-3 revenue projection in a 30-minute meeting, the DCF won't survive due diligence. Use the exercise as a stress test on your own narrative, not as a primary valuation anchor.

Best for

18+ months of forecastable revenue.

Formula
Σ (CF / (1+r)^t) × Survival prob × (1 - Illiquidity discount)

Inputs

  • Projected cash flows 5-10 years
  • Higher discount rate (30-50%)
  • Survival probability (20-40%)
  • Illiquidity discount (25-35%)
  • Terminal value with realistic growth

Caveats

  • DCF designed for cash-generating companies
  • Survival + illiquidity can swing output 5-10×
  • Use as triangulation

Source

https://www.equidam.com/startup-valuation-methods-to-use-and-avoid/

Verified 2026-06-03.

Other methods
VC MethodBerkus MethodScorecard / Bill PayneRisk Factor SummationComparables (market multiples)